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To hear conservative pundits and Republicans giddy from their Election Day successes tell it, Barack Obama has no chance to be elected to a second term as president in 2012. Never mind the historical examples of other presidents who got re-elected after being even lower in the public opinion polls than Obama is now.

In fact, there are numerous reasons why that judgment is at least premature and very likely just wrong. A good place to start the discussion is with this year's gubernatorial election in Maryland and the runaway victory by Martin O'Malley over Bob Ehrlich in a race that many expected to be close. While Maryland certainly is not a political microcosm of the nation, there are lessons from O'Malley's victory that are relevant to Obama's effort to win another term in the White House.

First, O'Malley did not hide from his record; instead, he presented it to voters as a success. His campaign emphasized both the accomplishments of his first four years and his promise to build on that record. He didn't apologize for what he had done nor did he suggest that a dramatic change of direction would be in the offing during a second term.

While there is much in the Obama record that is controversial, that does not mean it can't and shouldn't be defended. He should run on health care and financial sector reform, not away from them. He can point as well to the recovering automobile industry, the large amounts that have been paid back from the bailout monies and the recovery, albeit at a high political and financial cost, of the banking sector.

Second, Gov. O'Malley spoke to and treated voters as if they were serious adults who could handle the truth. His basic message was that things could be worse — that Maryland is doing better than many other states — and that brighter days are ahead. O'Malley never promised simple solutions or magic remedies, and Maryland voters — well educated and politically sophisticated — responded positively to that message.

Obama has to find a way to replicate O'Malley's approach without giving the impression that he doesn't understand the economic problems that people are facing. It's a tough balancing act, but O'Malley succeeded in showing that it is possible.

Finally, O'Malley's campaign went after his opponent early, often and hard. It helped that Ehrlich never developed a coherent or consistent message, but O'Malley's strategy of making sure that voters understood Ehrlich's record, his inconsistencies and his lack of a vision for the state was one of the keys to his easy victory.

Off Obama's performance the first time he ran, you can expect that he will be able to raise large amounts of money to get his message out to voters. He demonstrated, first against Hillary Clinton and then against John McCain, that he can speak with eloquence and passion to voters and that he can sustain a long-term campaign strategy without overreacting to every gust of political wind that blows.

While there is no doubt that Republicans scored big gains in the 2010 election, what that portends for the future is less clear. Voters expressed frustration because of an economy that is still struggling and at politicians who seem out of touch with their concerns and are unable to produce any results on a whole range of issues.

Congressional Republicans, even more unpopular than either the president or congressional Democrats, somehow ended up being the beneficiaries of that foul mood. Will they get the same benefit of the doubt after two years in which they have to share responsibility for the lack of jobs and the state of the economy? It may take more than saying no to convince voters that they are putting America first.

And then there's the question of who the Republican candidate for president will be. Current reactions to President Obama are somewhat in a vacuum given that there's no opposing candidate. This is where the sharp right turn that the Republican Party has taken may prove particularly damaging. In 2010, even longtime conservatives weren't ideologically pure enough for those Republicans who turned out for the primaries.

What that means is that it will be very difficult for a Republican who has any appeal to independents or moderate Democrats to win the party's nomination. A movement that picked Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, Joe Miller and Christine O'Donnell is not going to be satisfied with any candidate who is not so far to the right that ordinary Americans find that person unacceptable.

The leading prospect, if the extreme right continues to dominate, would be Sarah Palin. She has demonstrated great self-promotional skills, a strong appeal to a highly enthusiastic but relatively small proportion of the electorate and fewer qualifications for governing than any major public figure in modern American history. The question of her electability is probably moot, however, because she is making so much money now without having to take responsibility for anything she says or does.

From this perspective, the example of Martin O'Malley's victory this year and the stranglehold that extremists have over what was once the Republican Party make Barack Obama's prospects in 2012 look very good, with one major caveat.

If he doesn't show more resolve in standing up to Republican demands and tactics, he may end up in a serious fight for the Democratic nomination. In fact, it may already be too late. Obama's "deal" with Republicans this week to extend the Bush tax cuts could so damage his relationship with his Democratic base as to make all of the rest of these steps irrelevant.

Laslo Boyd is a partner at Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies. He also teaches

courses at both Towson University and the

University of Baltimore. His e-mail address is lvboyd@gmail.com.