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The National Retail Federation in Washington, D.C., which forecasts a 4 percent gain in national sales to $474.5 billion, is also not raising its projection.

Retailers across the nation last Friday and Saturday raked in an estimated $16.4 billion in revenue, up 7.2 percent from the same two days last year, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp. The Chicago market research company tracks retail trends at outlets across the nation.

The surge on those two days was more than ShopperTrak anticipated, said Bill Martin, co-founder of the firm.

Black Friday — the day after Thanksgiving that’s seen as the ceremonial start of holiday shopping — accounts for between 4.5 percent and 5 percent of all holiday sales. It was the biggest day of last year’s season, according to the National Retail Federation.

The shopping burst last weekend could have had a lot to do with discounts, said Thomas S. Saquella, president of the 600-member state retailers group.

‘‘The jury is still out,” Saquella said Wednesday. ‘‘There might be a lot of traffic in the stores, but there might not be as much money coming in because of the discounts. ... I think it’s still open as to what kind of holiday season it will be.”

More stores have been discounting merchandise this year than in 2006 in hopes of drawing shoppers during a tougher economy, he said. The housing crunch, credit worries and increasing gasoline and other energy costs have many retailers concerned.

While about 5 percent more shoppers hit stores nationally last weekend from a year ago, the average consumer spent less — $347 — because of deep discounts, according to the National Retail Federation. That was down 3.5 percent from a year ago.

Consumers were focused on lower-priced items than last year, such as digital photo frames, laptops and cashmere sweaters, federation executives said. The earlier Black Friday hours seemed to pay off, as 14.3 percent of buyers shopped before 4 a.m., up from 12.4 percent last year.

Cautious optimismin Frederick

In Frederick, retailers are ‘‘cautiously optimistic” about the holiday shopping season, said Kara Norman, director of the Downtown Frederick Partnership. The group’s annual Frosty Friday promotion throughout downtown last week drew more bargain-seekers than in 2006, she said. Many stores expanded their hours, and the city offered carriage rides, free hot cocoa and holiday activities.

Whitney Bingham, owner of The Muse boutique in Frederick, said sales were up so far this month compared with last November.

‘‘It’s been steady business all season, but that’s the day that really puts people in the mood,” Bingham said of Black Friday. ‘‘Once December hits, people start to panic.”

In Brunswick, several new retailers have opened on Potomac Street this year. The new shops filling in vacant space have helped attract more shoppers to the area, said Traci Giganti, co-owner of Book Crossing, which is in the midst of its fourth holiday season.

‘‘We’re having a great holiday season so far,” Giganti said. ‘‘I haven’t looked at [sales figures] yet, but definitely our daily sales have increased.”

But on Black Friday itself, downtown Brunswick did not see an unusual surge of shoppers, Giganti said. ‘‘We had a good day, but nothing extraordinary,” she said.

Thanksgiving being a week earlier this year — not the last Thursday of November — might have had some impact, Norman said.

Merchants in New Market, which has been evolving from an antiques-only Main Street to an all-inclusive shopping destination, saw more families shopping on Friday, said Kimberly Price, owner of the 12 West Main gallery.

‘‘The town has revitalized itself a lot, and people are rediscovering it,” Price said. ‘‘We’re confident the rest of the season will go well for us. It just keeps getting better every year.”

Online shopping surges,but average spending down

Online shoppers spent some $10.7 billion from Nov. 1 through Monday, up 17 percent from a year ago, according to Reston, Va., Internet traffic tracking firm ComScore. On Cyber Monday alone, sales rose by 21 percent to $733 million.

But as in most other surveys, average spending was down by 12 percent, according to ComScore. Company executives said discounts could have had an impact.

The top retail sites ranked by ComScore, according to number of visitors on Cyber Monday, were Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target, Dell and Best Buy.