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In 1792, the Old Farmer's Almanac was founded by Robert B. Thomas. The formula the almanac uses today is a secret process that Thomas created. Notes about that formula are locked in a black box in the almanac's offices in Dublin, New Hampshire.

He believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, magnetic storms on the surface of the sun. Over the years, the almanac has refined and enhanced the original formula with current technology and modern scientific calculations.

The formula uses three scientific disciplines to make our long-range predictions: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.

The almanac predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with solar activity.

The forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from historic averages. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies which are updated every ten years. The most recent tabulations span the period 1971 through 2000.

"We believe that nothing in the universe happens haphazardly, that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena," states the almanac's Web site. "However, although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are almost always very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent."

Source: The Old Farmer's Almanac, www.almanac.com.