GOP takes Virginia, New Jersey is Maryland next?
What did we learn from this month's elections around the country? Did it tell us anything about next year's races in Maryland?
Not really. While the mixed results gave both Republicans and Democrats reasons to claim progress, the numbers don't mean much for the Free State.
Virginia doesn't have Maryland's lopsided Democratic voting tendency. Maryland and New Jersey are dominated by wide swaths of suburbia, but Jersey has a huge number of non-aligned voters (45 percent) and a relatively small black voting population.
Republicans won in New Jersey and Virginia because they had acceptable candidates who campaigned on moderately conservative platforms and ran against deeply flawed Democrats.
That won't be the case in Maryland next year. New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine was the most disliked politician in his state after hiking taxes through the roof and running up an enormous deficit. A massive corruption indictment this summer soured voters on Jersey Democrats. No wonder turnout was an abysmal 39 percent in the Democrats' key stronghold of Hudson County.
Similarly, Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell of Virginia benefitted from incredibly low turnout in Democratic bastions and among blacks. He also faced a weak candidate who alienated the Obama administration.
None of this tells us anything about Maryland's governor race next year. There are few solid clues for former Gov. Bob Ehrlich.
A recent Clarus Poll showed that while voters aren't wild about Gov. Martin O'Malley, he hasn't turned off enough Democrats and independents to make him vulnerable like Corzine.
Voters told pollsters they would prefer someone new next time over O'Malley. But the best candidate for Maryland Republicans is an old, familiar face Ehrlich. The state GOP is bereft of fresh, appealing candidates.
Ehrlich has his share of baggage. Core Democratic groups will move heaven and earth to make sure he doesn't serve a second time. Many Democrats and independents who voted for Ehrlich in 2002 were so disappointed they won't vote for him again.
Then there are the demographics problems facing Maryland Republicans. Since Ehrlich's 2002 victory, Democrats have gained a far larger advantage in voter registration. Democrats can roll up enormous totals in populous Baltimore city, Montgomery County and Prince George's County. It makes it difficult for any Republican to win statewide.
At the same time, Democrats can't take too much pleasure from the election. They pulled off a surprise victory in a special congressional race in a traditional Republican district in New York. But that was due to an internal GOP split in which conservatives did a hatchet job on their party's moderate nominee.
Meanwhile, Democrats lost in two states where they won in 2008. People are fed up with elected officials. They abhor politics as usual. But much can change in the next year.
Will voter anger toward officeholders keep building for another 12 months, or will a slowly improving economy change our perspective? Will health care reform remain a hot-button issue, or will it be long forgotten by next November? Will the recession continue to plague people's lives, or will we be enjoying better times by late 2010?
If you have the answers, congratulations on your new career as a high-paid psychic.
For the rest of us, it is wise to recall the words of political legend Tip O'Neill: "All politics is local." What influences voters next year in Maryland won't be the same as what happened in New Jersey, Virginia or New York.
A recent legislative hearing on the sacking of the state's public defender focused on enlarging the agency's Board of Trustees from three to as many as 13.
That, lawmakers implied, would solve everything. In fact, it does not address underlying conflicts at the Office of Public Defender.
Who determines the direction of this agency trustees or the public defender? If the it's the latter, what role, if any, should trustees play? Who should ultimately have supervisory power over the public defender?
Fired Public Defender Nancy Forster and Trustee Chairman T. Wray McCurdy locked horns over the agency's role. McCurdy wanted to focus dwindling dollars on representation of indigent clients; Forster refused to junk social worker services or agree to other cuts.
The agency needs direction from lawmakers. What are the limits of the public defender's powers? Can she ignore trustees? Is she immune from supervisory control?
Those are questions state legislators haven't addressed. The number of trustees at the table is irrelevant.
The Public Service Commission deserves plaudits for a lucid, common-sense ruling on a potentially explosive issue.
In approving the sale of half of Constellation Energy's nuclear assets to EDF, the PSC crafted a clear and compelling document that was a triumph of diplomacy.
The 45-page ruling reads as though the commission heeded Gov. Martin O'Malley's demands and forced massive changes on Constellation. No wonder the governor proclaimed victory.
In reality, though, the PSC gave Constellation everything it sought. The commissioners simply rearranged pieces of the firm's financial offer so consumers get a $100 credit. This costs Constellation nothing beyond what it already had placed on the table. Constellation might have crowed about its total victory. Instead, it let the governor grab the headlines. That was a wise diplomatic move, too.
In the end, the PSC did a fine job of making both sides happy.
Barry Rascovar is a State House columnist and a strategic communications consultant. His address is brascovar@hotmail.com.