Victory will hinge on how many voters vote Tuesday

Polls show governor’s race growing tighter in the final days

Friday, Nov. 3, 2006

Click here to enlarge this photo Chris Rossi⁄The Gazette Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich (center) and his running mate, Kristen Cox, greet commuters outside the Silver Spring Metro station Wednesday.

G. Keith Haller, president of Potomac Inc., said that if the turnout exceeds 50 percent, it captures the ‘‘occasional voter” where Ehrlich (R) polls strong. He defined an occasional voter as someone who has voted at least twice in the past four elections.

‘‘We’re showing he leads by 15 points with occasional voters,” Haller said.

The candidates’ own polls give a glimpse of how the election might turn out next week.

For example, if Ehrlich wins re-election, he might be able to thank the Washington suburbs that overwhelmingly supported his opponent four years ago.

Montgomery and Prince George’s counties — as blue as the Caribbean — have increased their support for the Republican governor from his 2002 margins, Ehrlich claimed Wednesday.

When he faced Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend four years ago, Ehrlich polled 38 percent of Montgomery’s voters. Now, he’s reaching the low 40s, according to his own polls.

Ehrlich won support from 22 percent of Prince George’s 2002 voters.

There, the governor said, his campaign is doing ‘‘much, much better.”

The O’Malley camp, however, makes contradictory claims.

In Montgomery County, O’Malley is doing better than Townsend in 2002, O’Malley campaign spokesman Hari Sevugan said. And in Prince George’s County, O’Malley has the same lead Townsend had, he said.

Haller said his own polls showed Ehrlich within ‘‘striking distance” of his claims.

Ehrlich said some of his improvement in Prince George’s County comes from Democrats who want to support Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele’s U.S. Senate bid.

And Ehrlich’s Montgomery support — the governor claimed it jumped 5 points after his debate with the mayor — is because of O’Malley’s position on the Intercounty Connector highway.

‘‘You can’t say you support the road and then oppose the form of funding,” Ehrlich said Wednesday at a meeting at Asbury Methodist Village in Gaithersburg.

Published polls provide multiple points of view. On Wednesday, The (Baltimore) Sun — with polling by Potomac — calls the race a tossup. On Sunday, the Washington Post said O’Malley led by 10 points.

Democrats have sought to knock down the Haller poll by pointing out that Baltimore County Executive James T. Smith (D) has done polling that showed different spreads between Ehrlich and O’Malley.

Democrats have said for weeks that O’Malley was within striking distance of Ehrlich in the Baltimore suburbs, Ehrlich’s base where he buried Townsend in 2002.

‘‘I think we’ll really do well in Baltimore County and Anne Arundel,” Sevugan said. Ehrlich’s 2002 margin in those counties — 23 points and 30 points, respectively — has ‘‘evaporated,” Sevugan claimed.

Staff Writer Thomas Dennison contributed to this report.