Gonzales poll

Friday, Oct. 28, 2005

What does the just-released Gonzales poll tell us about Maryland’s 2006 elections? Answer: that only the ‘‘Glorious Five Thousand” political junkies are focused on a year-away election. In other words, the poll results mainly reflect two things — the candidates’ name recognition and the respondents’ party affiliation. Nevertheless, it’s not too early to reach the following conclusions from the Gonzales tea leaves:

Bad news for Ehrlich

More Marylanders approve of Governor Ehrlich (49 percent) than disapprove (42 percent), but it’s his lowest rating ever. Ehrlich’s hurt by the traditional ‘‘fatigue syndrome” experienced by national parties and presidents during their second terms. President Bush’s approval (33 percent) in the same poll is his lowest ever, too. To some extent, Bush’s problems — Iraq, gas prices, hurricanes, deficits, the Supreme Court — rub off on Ehrlich. And this is during a booming Maryland economy! So don’t look for photos of Bob hugging George in Ehrlich’s re-election brochures. Heck, in Virginia, a red state, the Republican gubernatorial candidate found something else to do when the president visited Norfolk this week. Politics is a cruel business.

Ehrlich’s sagging approval rating also shows that the media’s relentless character assassinations have finally taken a toll. But the poll’s main lesson is a reminder that Maryland is one of the nation’s six most liberal states with a nearly two-to-one Democratic voter registration.

Ehrlich won in 2002 because the Democrats put up an unbelievably weak candidate. Or, as Ehrlich puts it, ‘‘I know I beat the JV. Next time they’re sending the varsity.”

Good news for O’Malley, Duncan

These guys are the varsity. And, sure enough, the poll shows both beating Ehrlich if the election was this month. And they both do it with majority support from the traditional Democratic strongholds: blacks, women and ‘‘the Big Three” (Baltimore city, Prince George’s and Montgomery counties). Ehrlich wins everywhere else, and with both whites and men. But that’s not enough. Bottom line: a Democrat can win in Maryland without Republican votes but a Republican can’t win without Democrats. In Maryland, under normal circumstances, any Democrat, even Daffy Duck, beats a Republican.

But Ehrlich has some advantages: the power of the incumbency, a great life story, a bulging war chest and an uncontested primary unlike whomever emerges from the O’Malley vs. Duncan dogfight. To win re-election Ehrlich must translate these advantages into Democratic votes.

Meanwhile, Martin O’Malley is happy because the poll shows him defeating Ehrlich 48 percent to 42 percent, like several other polls this year. But Doug Duncan is even happier because, for the first time, he’s beating Ehrlich, too (45 percent to 44 percent).

Duncan’s breakthrough ends O’Malley’s self-serving boast that Duncan can’t defeat Ehrlich and, therefore, should step aside. The Gonzales poll shows that O’Malley’s and Duncan’s support against Ehrlich is almost identical statewide except O’Malley runs 9 points ahead of Duncan in Baltimore city while Duncan runs 9 points ahead of O’Malley in the D.C. suburbs. Either would be a formidable threat against Ehrlich.

The U.S. Senate race

The Gonzales poll also ran some trial heats between each of the leading Democrats for U.S. Senate, Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume, against Republican Mike Steele (who was not an announced candidate when the poll was taken). Predictably, like the gubernatorial heats, the results mostly reflect the candidates’ relative name recognition and the respondents’ party affiliation but with an added twist, race.

If the election were today, Cardin beats Steele 47 percent to 38 percent and Steele beats Mfume 42 percent to 40 percent. But the devil is in the crosstabs.

Ready for this? When Cardin runs against Steele, the white guy (Cardin) gets the black vote and the black guy (Steele) gets the white vote! Cardin gets 68 percent of the blacks to Steele’s 18 percent, but Steele gets 44 percent of the whites to Cardin’s 41 percent. In other words, for now, the voters are choosing their party affiliation over their race.

The main reason Mfume doesn’t do as well as Cardin against Steele is that a significant number of white Democrats and independents defect to Steele if Mfume is the Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, black Democrats stay loyal to the party whether it’s Cardin or Mfume.

Warning: Attaching great meaning to these very preliminary poll results is risky. Judging an election’s outcome before it begins is as futile as predicting a ball game’s outcome during the first inning. At this stage, the pundits’ picks are as meaningful as all those sports writers’ forecast that the Astros would win the World Series.

Postscript

It’s still unsettled what constitutes ‘‘Baltimore bashing.” The Baltimore Sun says Doug Duncan can’t challenge Mayor O’Malley’s record because it might reflect poorly on the city. But Duncan says O’Malley’s record is fair game.

So here’s my question: Last week, Duncan’s hometown high school football team, Georgetown Prep (Rockville), took on O’Malley’s hometown team, Mount St. Josephs (Baltimore). Prep won, 15-10, when Thomas Duncan, the county executive’s son, returned a kick 90 yards for a touchdown.

Is that ‘‘Baltimore bashing?”

Blair Lee is president of the Lee Development Group in Silver Spring and a regular commentator for WBAL radio.