Laslo Boyd: Red ink everywhere, but no place to make cuts
So you think it's easy being an elected official, do you? Before you answer, consider some findings from the latest Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies statewide poll of Maryland voters.
First, the good news for state officials. In response to a question about the current budget situation facing Maryland, an astonishing 75 percent think it is a "very big" problem and another 22 percent agree that it is "somewhat of a problem." In other words, nearly everyone in Maryland thinks that state officials are facing a significant challenge with respect to the budget deficit. On many important public policy issues, convincing people that there is a problem requiring a response isn't easy, but the governor and General Assembly leadership are past that obstacle already.
Yet, in a somewhat perverse display of public opinion, there are very large portions of the population opposed to any of the most likely ways to deal with the current budget woes, and on many of the main options, they are "strongly" opposed. But the governor and General Assembly, as the result of the requirements of the Maryland Constitution, don't have the luxury of not taking any action. Put in stark political terms, the necessity of balancing the state budget means that significant portions of Maryland voters will be unhappy with the actions of the responsible state officials.
The numbers tell a remarkable story about the mindset of Maryland voters. The conventional wisdom is that voters don't want any additional taxes. The Gonzales Poll results confirm that view. Respondents oppose increasing the state income tax by a margin of 67 percent to 26 percent. Almost as many, 64 percent to 31 percent, oppose an increase in the sales tax.
As if those numbers aren't stark enough, a full 46 percent of Democrats "strongly" oppose an income tax increase, a rate almost identical to that of Republicans and Independents. And 48 percent of Democrats "strongly" oppose an increase in the sales tax as well. The political bottom line: raising major taxes does not seem like a viable option available to state leaders for closing the budget deficit.
Okay, that means the budget has to be cut. To see if voters have a clear idea of their priorities with respect to the budget, the Gonzales Poll asked a series of questions about specific areas of the budget. Respondents were asked if they "strongly" supported, "somewhat" supported, "somewhat" opposed, or "strongly" opposed reducing state expenditures in a number of major program categories. For state leaders, these findings constitute the bad news from the poll.
There was not a single program of the five included in the survey that was supported for reductions and for most the opposition was remarkably high. Take public education as the most dramatic example. By a margin of 80 percent to 16 percent, respondents opposed cuts to public education, with relatively little difference in the attitudes of Democrats, Republicans and Independents. And 70 percent of Democrats, the party in control in Annapolis, "strongly" oppose any cuts. With numbers like that, it's hard to imagine that reductions in spending on education will be chosen as a way to close the budget gap.
If you think that result was obvious, consider the responses to reducing state services for the poor. Seventy percent of those responding oppose cutting these programs, compared with only 22 percent who support reductions, with even Republicans, by a margin of 55 percent to 35 percent, opposing cuts in services for the poor. And among Democrats, 64 percent "strongly" oppose reductions. Again, the politics of Maryland have seemingly taken another category off the chopping block.
The poll included questions about three other budget areas and whether there was support to reduce spending in each of those programs. Higher education cuts were opposed by 67 percent of respondents and favored by only 27 percent. Fifty-six percent opposed reductions to state environmental programs compared to 38 percent who favored that as a budget target. In the area of transportation, 51 percent were against cuts as opposed to 40 percent who supported them.
A couple of additional thoughts jump out from these results. For one, a majority of Republicans opposed every area of cuts other than for environmental programs.
And, in the two areas — environment and transportation — where the differences were less than in the other three, there were still solid majorities opposed to reductions.
Finally, the lesser degree of support for transportation, while still a majority, raises troubling public policy concerns. The state transportation trust fund is getting perilously low, and the ability to meet current needs is in jeopardy. There has been no increase in gas taxes under the last three governors and a critical state resource, the transportation infrastructure, is at risk. And oddly, Maryland's businesses, which are key beneficiaries of the transportation system, have not mounted a vigorous campaign to find funding sources.
When you review all of these results, you come away with the distinct impression that Marylanders like and want the key programs that state government provides, but don't want to pay for them. And that leaves state policy makers with a real dilemma.
Laslo Boyd is a partner at Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies. He also teaches courses at both Towson University and the University of Baltimore. His e-mail address is lvboyd@gmail.com.