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Maryland's lack of a true two-party system means most important races have been decided five weeks before the Nov. 2 general election.

Not only does that shortchange voters by distorting the electoral process, it leads to citizen disinterest and disappointing turnouts.

Last week's primary voting set a record for lowest participation rate in a modern Maryland election. If that trend is repeated in November, it could create surprising results.

Though state Democrats hold a 2-1 registration advantage, that 1 million vote lead could vanish if there's a poor Election Day showing.

You can bank on Republicans turning out. They have that tea party fervor and a unifying goal — the ouster of liberal Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley.

Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich is well positioned to ride the crest of the Republican wave sweeping over the country. He's well known to voters. He's personally well liked. He's promising what voters want to hear (even if he can't deliver once in office) — lower taxes and less government spending.

The thought of a second Ehrlich ascendancy should motivate Democratic officeholders. O'Malley also has millions more to spend than Ehrlich. That can buy him a lot of manpower and campaign activism.

O'Malley gains an added advantage because of the state GOP's chronic anemia. There is just a shell of a statewide Republican organization compared with the Democrats' well-funded and structured statewide party apparatus.

The incumbent governor holds another key edge in November: early voting. O'Malley has the money and organization to conduct a massive early-voting drive in two critical jurisdictions where he can count on lopsided support.

This is the first year for early voting in Maryland. Absentee balloting also was expanded so anyone now can vote in advance of Election Day. Yet most people didn't know these new options exist. Severe budget cuts meant the state never launched a major advertising drive to educate citizens.

The results of early voting were paltry in the primary, which isn't surprising. Yet that may not be the case in November: An early-voting blitz by O'Malley in Baltimore city and Prince George's County could produce a giant cluster of extra votes.

The Democrats are strongest in these two majority-black jurisdictions. In 2006, O'Malley rolled up a 200,000-vote lead in Prince George's and Baltimore — more than enough to ensure his victory. How did he do it? He won in those jurisdictions by margins of 4-1 and 3-1, respectively.

A disciplined and well-funded early-voting drive by Democrats could offset lower turnouts on Nov. 2.

It already happened in Baltimore County, where Kevin Kamenetz won the Democratic nomination for county executive by 7,100 votes. More than a third of his winning margin came from early votes. While Kamenetz defeated Joe Bartenfelder by just 8 percentage points on primary day, he had a huge 23-point lead among early voters.

Ehrlich must offset these Democratic advantages with a higher level of enthusiasm from his motivated supporters, including tea party activists. He's got momentum and energy on his side of the line.

That should translate into hefty Ehrlich votes in rural counties and fast-growing suburbs such as Frederick, Harford and Carroll counties.

The pivotal confrontation could occur in Baltimore County, which historically has swung back and forth between the two parties.

In the past four gubernatorial elections, Baltimore County has favored the Republican each time, but by widely varying margins.

In 2002, Ehrlich swamped Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in Baltimore County by nearly 55,000 votes, a sign that he would coast to victory statewide.

Four years later, O'Malley narrowed Ehrlich's lead in the county to just 8,400 votes. This helped him easily defeat the Republican incumbent statewide.

For a Republican in Maryland to do well, he or she must win convincingly in Baltimore County.

During the 1990s, Republican Ellen Sauerbrey ran twice for governor, nearly winning in 1994 (thanks to a 32,000-vote margin in Baltimore County) and losing badly in 1998 (she only carried Baltimore County by 3,300 votes).

A new trend is starting to emerge in that county, too, as demographics change the county's complexion.

In 2008, Barack Obama generated huge enthusiasm among African-Americans, who now constitute 26 percent of Baltimore County's 790,000 citizens. It was one reason Obama carried the county by 55,000 votes.

Last week's turnout in black county precincts remained fairly strong. Kamenetz's good showing there gave him his winning primary margin.

O'Malley now must persuade African-American voters to continue to play a key role on Election Day. That won't be easy without Obama on the ballot in November.

A low turnout among Baltimore County blacks is bad news for the governor. It also could play a role in determining the next county executive, either Democrat Kamenetz or former Republican Del. Ken Holt.

As for Ehrlich, he needs a large lead in older, more conservative neighborhoods in eastern Baltimore County. But turnout there was miserable last week. A repeat in November would be terrible for Republicans.

So far, no one has figured out why primary election turnout in Maryland was abysmal, especially in light of citizen anger over the prolonged recession, the jobless recovery and government's inability to provide a quick fix.

Will citizens show more interest in voting on Nov. 2? Or will this public malaise continue? The answer to those questions could determine who occupies the governor's mansion in January.

Barry Rascovar is a State House columnist and communications consultant. His e-mail address is brascovar@hotmail.com.