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Longtime Republican activist Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. was expected to establish an exploratory campaign with the state elections board Tuesday, moving one step closer to formally seeking the party's gubernatorial nomination next year.

"I've never walked away from a tough challenge," Hogan, the appointments secretary under Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., said in an interview Monday. "I've always believed nothing is impossible."

The founder and owner of a land brokerage firm in Annapolis has been more visible in recent months, traveling to the J. Millard Tawes Crab and Clam Bake in Crisfield in July, the Maryland Association of Counties summer conference in Ocean City last month and attending numerous political fundraisers around the state this summer.

The 2010 primary election will be held exactly one year from Tuesday.

If Ehrlich opts to seek the GOP gubernatorial nomination, Hogan, 53, of Edgewater said he will back out and throw his support behind his former boss.

Ehrlich, who works at a law firm in Baltimore and hosts a weekly talk radio show, has not signaled whether he will run, but he remains a popular figure within Republican political circles. He is thought to be waiting until after the November gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, which could serve as bellwether races for GOP prospects in other states.

An Ehrlich candidacy would give the GOP its best hope at reclaiming the governorship, Hogan said.

But if Ehrlich declines to run, the party must have a viable candidate to challenge Gov. Martin O'Malley, he said.

"Obviously, I wouldn't be doing this if I was convinced he was going to run," Hogan said. "He has the luxury of time. No one else does."

Hogan has been a fierce critic of O'Malley and the Democratic leadership, which he called "an arrogant monopoly." Specifically, he chastised O'Malley for supporting anti-business legislation and signing $1.4 billion in tax hikes passed during a special legislative session in 2007.

"He refuses to follow and he fails to lead," Hogan said of O'Malley.

Rick Abbruzzese, the governor's top spokesman, brushed off the accusations. "We look forward to a spirited campaign when that time comes," he said in an e-mail.

"In the meantime, Gov. O'Malley is making the tough decisions to bring Maryland through the national recession."