After primary battles, general election might be anticlimactic
Observers skeptical that GOP can make major inroads
Next week's primary election will determine bitterly contested state Senate races from Hagerstown to Capitol Heights and Crofton to Cheverly.
For voters in those areas and other Senate districts across Maryland where no general election opposition awaits the primary represents the sole contested race. Ten senators face no challenge in both the primary and general elections.
The acrimonious nature of several of those races, as well as others in Montgomery County, has stolen the limelight from the general election, where showdowns typically are more anticipated. But there appear to be fewer battleground races shaping up in November than usual, even at a time when partisanship is running high nationally.
"We have very few areas left in the state where it's not a clear cut R' or D,'" said Van T. Mitchell, a Democratic former Charles County delegate. "I think the map has changed so dramatically in the last 15 or 16 years that it's pretty clear-cut. It used to be that a lot of the rural areas were wide open. That's not the case anymore."
That is partially because of redistricting maps drawn by the Maryland Court of Appeals in 2002, said Sushant Sidh, an Annapolis lobbyist who helped draw Gov. Parris N. Glendening's proposed redistricting plan, which was struck down by the courts.
"You have districts that are going to go Republican and districts that are typically going to go Democrat, and the number of swing districts are not as great as what you would see in other states," he said.
The lack of competitive general election races reflects how few districts in Maryland are marked by divided political views, said Corey Stottlemyer, a GOP consultant who is advising several incumbent delegates in western Maryland.
"If the state was more of a true two-party state, you'd have competitive primaries, but you'd also have much more competitive generals," he said.
As it stands, the bitter Democratic Senate primaries in Districts 17, 19 and 39 in Montgomery County and the contentious GOP clashes in Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Washington counties might provide the bulk of the drama this election season.
Political observers are pointing to general election matchups in Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties and on the Eastern Shore as the most compelling legislative races.
The retirement of longtime Sen. J. Lowell Stoltzfus (R-Dist. 38) of Westover sets up a likely face-off between Del. James N. Mathias Jr. (D-Dist. 38B) of Ocean City and Republican Michael James, who manages the Carousel Resort Hotel & Condominiums in Ocean City.
Democrats see it as an opportunity to gain a Senate seat, while Republican strategists say they must hold onto the seat if they have any hope of gaining a veto-proof bloc that would come with a net pickup of five seats.
The GOP has high hopes of knocking off incumbent Sens. John C. Astle (D-Dist. 30) of Annapolis and James Brochin (D-Dist. 42) of Towson, as well as some other vulnerable Democrats.
"There's no question it looks better for us now than it did even six months ago," said Senate Minority Leader Allan H. Kittleman (R-Dist. 9) of West Friendship, who declined to say which incumbents the GOP is targeting for defeat.
"I think we can get five or more, and the folks who think that's not possible maybe they haven't driven around the state like I have over the past three months and talked to people and seen the excitement."
Voters will have distinct choices between the views of major party candidates in November, said House Minority Leader Anthony J. O'Donnell.
Although 2010 is setting up to be a big year for Republicans nationally, he does not view the general election as make-or-break for the GOP in Maryland.
"Our party has been around for the better part of the last 150 years, and it will continue regardless," said O'Donnell (R-Dist. 29C) of Lusby.
"But I would view it more as a crossroads for the state of Maryland. Do we want to encourage entrepreneurship, job creation and limited government, or do we want to continue down the path of a hostile business environment, ever-expansive government and the nanny state?"
He declined to say how many seats House Republicans hope to gain in November.
Currently, Democrats occupy 104 of 141 seats in the House of Delegates and 33 of 47 seats in the state Senate.
The most fertile ground for Republicans to pick up delegate seats is in Baltimore and Frederick counties, Stottlemyer said. Other observers see potential for gains in Southern Maryland and on the Lower Shore.
While several House Democrats will face tough re-election battles, the majority party also has opportunities to pick off Republican-held seats in both chambers, said Timothy F. Maloney, a former Democratic delegate from Prince George's County.
"Just because you see angry tea party people on TV doesn't translate into beating a local Democratic candidate," he said. "You have to be more than angry about something. You have to put forth candidates who have ideas and a sense of direction."
Besides the seat being vacated by Stoltzfus, Democrats think former Anne Arundel County school board member Edward P. "Ned" Carey can unseat Sen. Bryan W. Simonaire (R-Dist. 31) of Pasadena. They also view GOP-held delegate seats in Districts 2B, 8 and 36 as vulnerable.
With candidates such as Ron Elfenbein and T. Kevin Carney the likely GOP opponents against Astle and Brochin, respectively Kittleman (R-Dist. 9) of West Friendship is optimistic about the party's chances.
"The message we're sending around the state is, if you really want change in Annapolis, you need to elect Bob Ehrlich and you need to elect enough Republican senators to ensure that his vetoes will not be overridden," he said.
abrody@gazette.net