Would '06 win have put Ehrlich on VP track?
One-time GOP rising star chooses home over festivities in St. Paul
Sen. John S. McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah L. Palin to be his presidential running mate left Maryland Republicans wondering whether former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. could have been in the running for the slot had he won re-election in 2006.
"I think he certainly could have been because he fit a lot of the profile that John McCain used to come up with his list of potential candidates," former state party chairman John M. Kane said. "Bob has been a maverick, he is a reformist … and while the state of Maryland only has 10 electoral votes, he still is looked at as being his own person and not a tool of any party."
Ehrlich skipped heading to St. Paul for convention festivities this week. Aides said he was simply too busy, but one observer was perplexed by his no-show and questioned what it may portend for Ehrlich's future political prospects.
"For the governor to say he was too busy is really a bit disingenuous, because he was able to make all of the other Republican National Conventions when he was a congressman and a governor, and of course he was much, much busier," said John N. Bambacus, a professor emeritus of political science at Frostburg State University.
Ehrlich spokesman Henry Fawell declined further comment and shrugged off questions about his possible vice presidential prospects had he defeated Gov. Martin O'Malley in 2006.
Just four years ago, Ehrlich was considered someone to watch in national Republican circles, along with up-and-comers like Minnesota Gov. Timothy Pawlenty.
"His star was shining at the time," said Bambacus, a former Republican state senator. "… It's conjecture, of course, to truly know what might have happened … but I think it certainly would have been plausible, because he's a young, articulate, attractive candidate who was at the time the governor of one of the most liberal states in the nation."
The election defeat deflated Ehrlich's stock.
"Obviously, being in political office would be an advantage," said Kevin Igoe, a GOP strategist and former state party executive director.
Others pointed to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as evidence of someone who built their national profile without the benefit of being in elected office. Like Ehrlich, Romney "governed effectively in an overwhelmingly Democratic northeastern state," said House Minority Whip Christopher B. Shank (R-Dist. 2B) of Hagerstown.
The selection of Palin demonstrated that hailing from a swing state wasn't critical, which would have been a plus for Ehrlich, Kane said.
And Ehrlich displayed he wasn't afraid to buck the GOP establishment by appointing Democratic cabinet members and tapping judges from both parties. "That's not what a traditional party standard-bearer does," said Kane, recalling the angry calls he got from Republicans who were passed over for appointments. "To Ehrlich, it was not about whether you had an R' or a D' or an I' after your name, it was about how good you were as a potential judge."
But for all the positives, Ehrlich also had reasons why he wouldn't have been an ideal fit with McCain, who possibly chose Palin to court women unhappy with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's snub from the Democratic ticket.
Ehrlich initially backed former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in the primary, and only stood behind McCain once he effectively sealed the nomination in mid-February. Ehrlich is also pro-choice, a position that would have been unpopular among conservatives who demanded a pro-life running mate.
"He probably would have been on somebody's top-five or -10 list and as you looked at others [he would have] ultimately fallen by the wayside," Bambacus said.
Other Republicans declined to speculate on Ehrlich's chances had he defeated O'Malley in 2006.
"I hate to deal in hypotheticals," said House Minority Leader Anthony J. O'Donnell. "What ifs, not what ifs. We're busy enough dealing with what is."