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Finally, a legitimate election poll.

All we've been exposed to this summer have been obnoxious "robo polls," automated telephone surveys with inherent flaws that skew the results.

The Gonzales Maryland Poll takes a more reputable stab at fathoming the inclinations of state voters.

It is based on 807 interviews, statistically balanced to reflect the state's voting makeup.

So what does it tell us? Less than you think.

First, the governor's race could be close — or it could be a blowout for incumbent Martin O'Malley similar to four years ago.

With a 3.5 percent margin of error, O'Malley's 2.4 percent lead could be as high as 5.9 points — or challenger Bob Ehrlich could be barely ahead by 1.1 percent. Take your pick.

Second, "it's the economy, stupid!" That's all the public worries about, according to the Gonzales poll.

Yet, voters express cautious optimism regarding the state's economic future, with Democrats, Republicans and independents all expecting improvements over the next year rather than a decline.

Third, the candidates continue to perform about the same as they did in 2006. Ehrlich holds a big lead in rural counties and in the Baltimore suburbs; O'Malley holds giant leads in the state's most populous counties in the Washington suburbs and in Baltimore city.

Fourth, the incumbent remains modestly popular. O'Malley's favorable job performance numbers haven't changed much in the past two years. Ehrlich records good popularity numbers, too.

But here's what the Gonzales poll doesn't tell us:

First, there's been a substantial rise in registered voters since the last time the candidates butted heads. This trend strongly favors O'Malley. Maryland contains 268,000 more Democrats than in 2006, 105,000 more independents and just 37,000 more Republicans.

Democrats today outnumber the GOP by more than 1 million voters.

Second, voter intensity and geographic turnout will decide this election.

Four years ago, some Republicans failed to support Ehrlich because they felt he had made too many compromises as governor with Democratic legislators. Fortunately for the former governor, voters have a short memory, and the GOP faithful appear united behind Ehrlich this time.

On the other hand, O'Malley holds huge leads in voter-rich Montgomery and Prince George's counties and in that gold mine for Democratic candidates, Baltimore city. Ehrlich's popularity is highest in areas with the fewest number of voters.

O'Malley's problem is that Prince George's and Baltimore are so lopsidedly Democratic that all local elections will be decided in the September primary. Getting voters in these key jurisdictions excited enough to go the polls in November could be a big problem.

Third, the state's early voting law heavily favors O'Malley. Democrats have the organizational depth to use that extra week to ensure a good turnout, especially in Baltimore and Prince George's.

Fourth, money will be a factor. O'Malley holds an overwhelming advantage. He started this campaign $6 million ahead of Ehrlich. This will buy him a mountain of TV and radio advertising.

Equally important, it will give him plenty of money to energize political allies and Democratic loyalists and engage in a massive election-day effort.

Fifth, the American public remains in a sour mood. There's discontent with elected officials. That favors the challenger. Ehrlich gets to criticize O'Malley for raising taxes; for going on an early spending binge that came back to haunt him, and for running up gigantic deficits.

After a blistering heat wave, it's not surprising Maryland voters have short fuses toward their leaders. But will they feel that way 100 days from now, when cool air and the beauty of the fall season make this a true "Land of Pleasant Living"?

Summer polls are merely snapshots in time. They can't predict how voters will size up Ehrlich and O'Malley at the end of the campaign. They can't measure a candidate's ability to get followers in large numbers to vote.

Most of all, polls can't predict geographic turnout. That factor could be all-important.

The media got snookered on this week's report by the Health Care Reform Coordinating Council, which O'Malley turned to his political advantage.

The governor heralded news that Maryland will "save" an estimated $829 million over 10 years from the Obama health reform law.

True, there will be 400,000 more Marylanders with health coverage by 2017. But that move increases — rather than lowers — the health care bill.

What's happening is that costs are being shifted from Maryland to the federal government, starting in 2014. There's little net savings.

Yes, Maryland's budget that year will reflect a smaller sum of state dollars spent on health care. But it also will show a huge jump in federal health spending in Maryland.

Overall government expenditures for health care will be markedly higher. We aren't "saving" anything.

What we witnessed this week was a campaign ploy by O'Malley that worked. He didn't announce tough steps to "bend the health cost curve" and bring down government spending because it wouldn't be popular — not in an election year.

Barry Rascovar is a State House columnist and communications consultant. His e-mail address is brascovar@hotmail.com.