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No, not the elephant as in the Republican Party mascot. I'm referring to the issue that whoever is elected in November will have to deal with in January, but which neither is talking about in any detail during the campaign. The projected state budget deficit for the year that starts next July 1 is, as of now, about $1.5 billion. The two candidates have traded volleys about how much of an economic mess each of them inherited and how they dealt with it, but neither has confronted the challenge of the deficit they will face after the election.

The pattern for quite a number of years has been for the governor and General Assembly to pass, as required by the Maryland Constitution, a balanced budget for the following year, but with the realization that there was a built-in deficit facing the state in the subsequent year. The approved budget always has included a surplus, but never enough to fully cover the out-year shortfall. This situation is the very essence of a structural deficit.

Bob Ehrlich, in his four years as governor, made no serious attempt to come to grips with it. In 2007, Martin O'Malley and the General Assembly did try to end the ongoing structural deficit of the state during a special session where they cut spending, increased taxes and looked to anticipated lottery revenues in about equal proportions. Then the most serious national economic downturn since the Great Depression hit, and the balancing act of the special session was wiped out. Talk about no good deed going unpunished.

On the other hand, if O'Malley and the General Assembly hadn't acted in 2007, the projected deficit would be at least double what it is now, and Maryland would be looking more like California, Arizona or Michigan.

So much for history. Now it gets much harder. Both Ehrlich and O'Malley relied heavily on fund transfers and, most recently, on federal stimulus dollars to achieve the required balanced budget. But, like a horror film villain, the deficit is back and those tools are no longer available.

To fully appreciate the coming challenge, you need to factor in as well Ehrlich's stated goal of increasing the deficit before he deals with it. In a campaign stunningly short of specifics on any of his short list of policy proposals, the one strikingly clear position is Ehrlich's repeated wish to roll back the 1 percent increase in the state sales tax from the 2007 special session. That 1 percent generates approximately $650 million. Ehrlich asserts that cutting the tax will stimulate the economy and result in more state revenues, but even the most ardent free marketer would be hard-pressed to argue that the hoped-for new economic activity will produce anything close to the lost revenues.

There is another way to look at Ehrlich's stated position on the sales tax and the deeper hole that it would dig in terms of the deficit. He may realize that the goal is a totally empty promise that he'll never have to deal with because his chances of getting the Maryland General Assembly to agree to the rollback are slight indeed. In light of his inability to work successfully with the General Assembly on his highest priority last time — getting slots approved — it's unlikely that his working relationship would be any better if he were elected in November.

But wait, there's more. Ehrlich, in what sounds like a bit of pandering to state employees with whom his relationship hasn't been all that good either, has expressed his disapproval of furlough days as a way to save state dollars. If he were to take that budget device off the table, he would need to find another $108 million in cuts somewhere in the state budget.

It's hard to know where all that money will come from. One place, for sure, is public higher education, where the former governor is on record as supporting significantly higher tuition. Another will be in every imaginable fee that exists, plus others that may have to be invented. And, in reality, despite his staunch anti-tax rhetoric, he did end up raising the state property tax last time around. But don't expect to hear any details on this issue before November.

The same applies to Martin O'Malley. A case can be made that the most responsible and farsighted act of his first term was the 2007 special session, but he was damaged in public opinion polls as a result and has been constantly attacked by Bob Ehrlich for trying to end the state's structural deficit.

Rather than a serious discussion about the state budget, we get, instead, the two candidates expressing their positions — O'Malley opposed, Ehrlich in favor — on the Arizona immigration law. Who knew that immigration was a big issue in Maryland, other than for Andy Harris?

Laslo Boyd is a partner at Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies. He also teaches courses at both Towson University and the University of Baltimore. His e-mail address is lvboyd@gmail.com.