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ANNAPOLIS — Republicans are in for a banner election year on Capitol Hill and might pick up enough seats to gain control of the House of Representatives, a national political pundit told state legislative leaders on Friday. With anti-incumbent sentiment running strong nationwide, the GOP could flip more than the 39 seats it needs to take over the 435-member chamber, said Charles E. Cook Jr., publisher of the Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that tracks congressional campaigns.

Cook acknowledged his projection of at least 32 GOP takeovers is slightly higher than those of other Washington, D.C., prognosticators, but he believes it is not farfetched for Republicans to swing more than 40 seats their way. That would be a huge turnaround following back-to-back disappointing election cycles that saw Democrats pick up a combined 52 seats in 2006 and 2008.

"The only thing about having a great election is you've got to defend them at some point," Cook said at the National Speakers' Conference, which was held in Annapolis. "Now [Democrats] have only one way to go: down."

History favors Republicans. The party of the president fares poorly in the first midterm election, losing on average 16 seats in the House, Cook said. The average turnover in the Senate is barely significant, while at least five governors from the president's party historically lose their seats in the midterm election, he said.

"Midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power," Cook said. "[Voters] are either happy campers or they're not happy campers, and if they're not happy there's only one place to turn."

Several Maryland congressmen have much to gain or lose based on this fall's election returns.

If Democrats stay in power and he wins re-election, House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Dist. 5) of Mechanicsville will continue to be one of the most powerful people in Washington. If Republicans seize control, Democrats might elect a new leadership team.

And Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Christopher Van Hollen Jr. (D-Dist. 8) of Kensington, who was the architect of the party's gains in 2006 and 2008, could see his stock rise or fall depending on the election's outcome.

Democrats will retain control in the Senate, Cook predicted. Republicans will gain four to six seats, but Democrats currently enjoy a 10-seat advantage.

Cook used the analogy that Democrats are riding a bucking bronco, clinging on for dear life, as the political winds have shifted dramatically since 2008. The economy continues to sputter, and the debate over federal health care reform and immigration triggered the tea party movement, which has helped mobilize Republicans.

Another bad sign for Democrats: Third-party voters, who are likely to be a key bloc in numerous races this year, tend to vote against the party in power, Cook said. "They focus their anger with whoever is in charge."

The outcome of this fall's elections at the state level are important for another reason — congressional redistricting, which will be driven by the party in power in each state capital.

"If your party is going to get hammered, you never want it to be in a year that ends in zero," Cook said.

The good news for Democrats, Cook said, is midterm elections are poor indicators of what happens in the next presidential election.

In 1982, Republicans lost 27 seats to Democrats in the House. Two years later, President Ronald Reagan (R) easily captured a second term, winning the electoral vote in 49 of 50 states.

In 1994, Republicans seized 54 seats in the House. Two years later, President Bill Clinton (D) won re-election by a comfortable margin.