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ANNAPOLIS — He has not yet declared, but if the election were held today, former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. would return as governor, Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political science professor and popular political pundit, said Thursday.

Ehrlich (R) would win, he said, because of a "Republican high tide" that's visible in widespread polling data.

"You can see the tide building for Republicans. When is it going to crest? No one knows. Maybe it will never crest. Maybe this is another 1994," Sabato said.

He said he talked to a Republican official, who said, "I would give anything if we could reschedule the elections for tomorrow."

Variables such as an improved economy could swing independents toward the Democrats before the Nov. 2 general election, he said.

"I can't speak to what the talking heads say," said Tom Russell, campaign manager for Gov. Martin O'Malley (D). "But I think Governor O'Malley starts this year in a very strong position by any measure, whether that's political or looking at his record."

Ehrlich has said that he would announce whether he'll run in March.

"We understand what the environment is out there. But we also understand Maryland is a very difficult state. We take it all into account," Ehrlich said Thursday.

The latest statewide poll, a Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies survey taken last month, showed O'Malley leading Ehrlich in a hypothetical matchup by 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

Sabato's "Crystal Ball" politics Web site predicted that if elections were held today, Republicans would pick up nine governorships and lose three.

Three other governorships, now held by Democrats, would be tossups. Even so, Republicans hold five governorships that are now tossups, he said.

Sabato also predicted sizable GOP gains in both houses of Congress.